Taming Fire With Fire
Jim Cramer is probably one of the best countertrading signals the financial markets have seen in a while. I don’t know how this guy does it, but he’s always wrong, and counter-trading him seems to be so damn profitable. One of his latest tweets says: Now the futures are officially so high that you can’t buy anything that’s up big.
Is this a rally signal? Maybe… We’ll see, but with the SPX jumping a hundred points today, I’m thinking this summer could be wild as fuck. I don’t have any bets on the SPX, but I’m keeping an eye on the crypto market, and we’ve got some clear bullish signals there too…
Like, for example, the Trump Media $2.5 billion deal to create a Bitcoin treasury. That’s something… I can still vividly remember how much Trump was against crypto just a few years ago, and now he’s done a 180. I bet it’s that kid of his who’s heavily into crypto and probably orange-pilled him too.
Vivek’s Strive Asset Management just raised $750M to buy Bitcoin, and when you add the nearly $1 billion of BTC scooped up by MicroStrategy in recent days, it’s hard to stay bearish right now. Sure, altcoins are still in the gutter, and we’ll probably need to see BTC.D hit 70% before a proper altcoin season kicks in, but it’s coming anyway.
I don’t believe in a supercycle, though. I know gold had decades of upward trends after the gold spot ETF was approved, but BTC isn’t even close to gold in terms of mass adoption. There are a select few who see BTC as a safe haven, and some consider it a better option than gold, but we’ve still got a long way to catch up.
So, my take is that the four-year cycle, which lines up perfectly with global money supply booms and busts, will drive Bitcoin’s price performance in the years ahead. If we’re lucky, we’ll see something like 2017, and the last few months of the bull market will be prime for profit-taking.
If not, well… then we should probably focus on the king and overlook the peasants. But so far, the most money in crypto comes from swing trading altcoins. There are some typical and critical signs I’m waiting to see to call the market near a peak, and I don’t see them yet.
Public euphoria was here back in early 2024, and that was a clear sign the market was about to peak—and it did, since it took BTC about six months to break past $74,000. Many altcoins are still in bear market territory, and it’ll take a while for them to turn insanely bullish again.
Some probably won’t even touch their previous ATHs, but that doesn’t mean you can’t make money with altcoins in the coming months, especially if we see price action like 2017. I bet most of you reading this post are down a lot compared to May last year, and that’s the risk you take when betting on altcoins.
Still, if ETH breaks past its 2021 ATH in the next few months, I’m expecting fireworks across the board. That’s a big if, though… But one can hope, right? Anyway, the sky looks bright again. BTC is hovering around $110,000, retail is pretty much absent, and the RSI on the Bitcoin chart isn’t even close to 80… We might have a shot in the coming months.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian