Santa Claus is Coming To Town
I can’t wait to decorate the Christmas tree—I really can’t. It’s been about 20 years since I last did it, and I’ve missed those feelings. I don’t know if it’ll feel the same, but hey, one can only try.
You know what else I’m barely holding my breath for? A proper fucking altcoin season. I need it so bad. I’ve never actually ridden one from trough to peak. I was in crypto back in 2021, but let’s be real—that wasn’t a proper altcoin season.
Some coins didn’t even break their 2017 cycle highs—XRP and LTC, for example. This time, though, feels different, but not in the way most people think. It’s not “doom-and-gloom different.” Actually, my gut tells me we’re about to relive a 2017-style bull market.
I only jumped into crypto in late 2017, but looking at the charts, it’s clear 2017 had one hell of an altcoin season, mostly driven by ICOs. This time? I think memes are going to take center stage and melt faces. Just my two cents.
To me, 2020-2021 felt like an overhyped fad, with way too many bad catalysts squeezed into just two years. LUNA, Celsius, FTX, COVID—it was too much, man.
That said, despite BTC briefly hitting $107,000 overnight, the market still doesn’t feel euphoric. People are scared to hold because they don’t want a repeat of 2022. That hesitation makes me believe the upcoming altcoin season is going to be absolutely mind-blowing.
A buddy of mine is planning to sell in January or February because he feels “the end is near.” But listen, during a true euphoria phase, you’re never fearful of the market crashing—it doesn’t even cross your mind. That’s the feeling I’m waiting for. When everyone, myself included, is riding that high without a care, that’s when I’ll start to worry.
We’re not there yet. But I also don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking we’re in a supercycle or some infinite bull run. Sure, Trump Jr. is talking (or reading from a prompter) about Bitcoin at conferences, and Trump’s Liberty Wallet is diving into shitcoins, but every bull market eventually ends.
When will that be? If I had to guess, sometime in 2025. I wouldn’t bet on a specific quarter, though. I’m too seasoned to plan my exit on exact dates. I’ll rely on market sentiment, RSI, timing, and media hype to signal the top.
Right now, BTC’s RSI is under 80, and many altcoins are even cooler than that. To me, that says there’s plenty of fuel left. But once the market gets ridiculous, that fuel’s going to burn fast. When Bitcoin’s RSI hits 90, I’ll be prepping my parachute—no way am I heading into another bull market overexposed.
Santa Claus is coming to town, and our shitty little crypto town won’t be an exception. Patience and vigilance are key, though. Have a great Monday, everyone, and see you next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian