I DO NOT BELIEVE IN FAIRYTALES(SUPER CYCLES)

It's funny how similar yet different the Bitcoin and crypto boom and bust cycles are. On one hand, some patterns seem to hold every four years, especially when it comes to the duration of bull and bear markets, but on the other, we have emerging trends that don’t persist across multiple cycles.

This bull market, for example, shows Bitcoin still trading above $100,000 while most altcoins are in bear market territory, which strengthens the idea that BTC is gradually becoming a store of value and safe haven during shaky times. Shitcoins don’t hold such value, and we’ve also seen the total number of cryptocurrencies in existence increase threefold or more since the last bull market.

By no means am I suggesting altcoins are dying against BTC, although some probably will. However, I don’t believe in a supercycle either.
Lately, I’ve seen quite a few big names in the crypto space advocating for a supercycle for Bitcoin and crypto, but I highly doubt that’s happening. I get why they’re making these claims—mid-2025, and we still haven’t had a proper altcoin season, except for a few meme coins that did fantastic last summer but will probably fade by next year.

The main narrative around supercycles is the so-called institutional mass adoption. Well, I’m not stubborn enough to ignore the clear involvement of institutions in BTC investments, but as I stated in a previous post of mine from a few days ago, I strongly believe two emotions drive the world: fear and greed.

Greed will push both retail and institutional clients to ape into Bitcoin at well over $100,000, and fear will make them sell everything once a top occurs—and we’ll likely see a top this year. Personally, I’ve missed insane opportunities by falling for the supercycle nonsense back in 2021, and I’m not gonna make that mistake again.

I believe that over time, Bitcoin and certain other blockchains will gain more mass adoption, but no hill is without a peak. At some point, BTC will peak, and a bear market will follow. Whether that’s by the end of this year or early 2026, we’ll have to see, but nothing goes up forever.

To me, these people on Twitter spouting such remarks are early signs of a bull market peak. Some will be fooled into believing there’s no ceiling anymore, fueled by the fact that they “haven’t made it” this cycle. But at the end of the day (or cycle), a bear market will level out some of the insane dollar valuation growth Bitcoin has seen over the past three years or so.

No one knows when it’ll happen, but one thing is clear to me: markets peak on euphoria, and nothing lasts forever. We haven’t hit mass euphoria yet, but once it arrives, the peak is near. Just my two cents...

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian