Hold The Line There, Mate...
We have the town festivities going on these days, and honestly, it’s a chain of events that I hate. I'd rather spend these four or five days on a deserted island than be stuck on these crowded streets. I used to enjoy these events when I was a teenager, but now I can't stand them. I guess I’m either getting old... or wise...
This time of year also marks the peak tourist season here, which means that our small town of 10,000 sees its population tripled, if not more, over the course of just a few days. That's something we never saw back in the day.
The supermarkets are packed too. Waiting in long lines at the checkout is unavoidable. Yesterday, I noticed something funny about how our minds work, always trying to find a better spot but ending up worse off.
I was waiting in line, and the cashier seemed to be moving slowly, so I figured I’d be waiting forever. I switched to a different line, thinking I’d get out quicker. But before I even reached the new cashier, the people who were behind me in the old line had already checked out and left.
This same mistake has haunted me in crypto for a few years now. It's probably one of the worst things you can do: believing that whatever you're holding is underperforming, so you jump on a different train that's already picking up speed, only to watch the original one start moving as well...
Switching lanes too often will lead to massive losses over time because this strategy is guaranteed to make you miss important rallies and keep you chasing coins with massive potential. Nobody knows which coin will be the white horse of the race. You can guess, make a few picks, and wait.
To me, that’s the best strategy. At the end of the day, they’ll all pump, and if you’re lucky enough to have picked a great performer, that’s awesome. If not, never chase pumps and don’t over-diversify... It’s not lucrative.
There’s something else I want to point out in this post.
Recently, I saw a chart on Twitter showing that BlackRock is now the third-largest Bitcoin holder in the world. Many investors will start believing, as we continue our uptrend, that BlackRock won’t sell, and because of large entities like this not selling, we’re going to enter a super cycle.
I don’t believe that will happen and will keep saying so until the bear market in 2026 proves me right. These entities are smart money; they know how to make money. And to make the most out of Bitcoin, you have to learn how to ride the waves. So far, the halving-ignited cycles have cascaded like clockwork... The current cycle might be shorter—who knows...
At some point, BTC will peak, no doubt about it. And unfortunately, many will get trapped in the market again, believing this time is different and "the printer" will keep us away from the bear market. It won’t happen. The everything bubble will pop, but not without a blow-off top.
Just my two cents.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian