"Gone for Good"

BTC dropped overnight (my local time) to as low as $75K… I guess very few expected that to happen, considering all the Trump hype around crypto—but it did. And once again, we have proof that the market does whatever the hell it wants, not what us plebs expect.

I had a long limit order set at $74,500, but it didn’t get filled. I know why… Every time there’s a crash, investors lower their targets, and once the market turns around and we start pumping hard, we raise our targets instead. We’re emotional creatures, and that gets reflected in the market.

I have mixed feelings about this market, as I’ve already said a couple of times over the past week. On one hand, we should be in a bull market—but on the other, this doesn’t look like our regular four-year cycle behavior anymore.

Even so-called smart money is bleeding, with positions worth over $100 million getting liquidated. It makes me wonder: is the four-year cycle even still in place? We had a massive premature pump in early 2024 right after the ETFs got approved, and many of us probably regret not dumping our altcoins back then.

But everything that came after? It looks off. At least to me… But maybe we’re just short-sighted, which is obvious when you look at how the majority in crypto reacts. The 2020-2021 cycle was also weird—most of the real gains happened in May 2021 instead of late 2021. But if you look at altcoins, you’ll see they started their bull run earlier than they did in 2017.

Back then, the real action in 2017 started between March and April, with the first leg up ending in June. The most money was made by holding until December 2017 – January 2018. But who the hell would have guessed that ETH would hit $1,400 after rallying from $10 to $400 in just a few months earlier that year?

I bet investors back then were just as uncertain as we are today. And still—what followed the early 2017 rally was legendary. Now, we’re getting bullish BTC news almost daily, yet price action is shite…

I was thinking… Most of us stare at the same patterns and data every single day, all convinced we’ve spotted something others haven’t. But in reality, it’s the algorithms running the show. So why wouldn’t AI-driven market manipulation be happening in crypto?

BlackRock has been using AI for decades, and I wouldn’t be surprised if these big players entering crypto are manipulating entirely new types of data, rather than relying on the good old charts we’ve been using for years. The obvious often becomes obsolete.

I wouldn’t bet all my money on this bull market still being alive. But I wouldn’t bet on a confirmed bear market either. Altcoins haven’t even had a proper season yet, and that’s where the real money is made. If the bull market is actually over, I highly doubt we’ll ever see another altcoin season again—which means most retail investors would be gone for good.

Just my two cents…

Thanks for your attention,
Adrrian