$90K BTC... Now What?

BTC has gradually recovered lost ground over the past couple of weeks, and during Easter time it felt like it did that on silent mode. I mean, we didn’t get shit to create any sort of FOMO or anything. Somehow, even the most renowned individuals in the space are just waiting for crazy things to happen so that BTC does crazy pumps.

Well, that’s true in some instances, but not every time. As with the current steady price appreciation—there’s no catalyst. All we have is buyers meeting sellers, and buyers outnumbering the latter. It’s that simple. Always has been.

Saylor bought some more over the weekend, but he’s done purchasing corn for now, and the price keeps rising nevertheless. Is this it though? Are we out of the woods with the correction that started on January 15? I have no fucking clue, I’m not a wizard. If I were one, I’d be sitting on billions right now...

I do believe, though, that there’s more gas in the tank for crypto, and it looks like the four-year cycles are still in play. We probably fell too hard for the comparison of the current cycle with 2021, and that’s why some of us got really frustrated about altcoins not performing strong already.

However, if you check the price action of 2017, you’ll see that the most relevant coins of that time started their first aggressive uptrend sometime in late April—and quite a few managed to pull an easy 10X by mid-June of the same year. ETH and XRP did over 30X in about two months in early 2017, if I remember correctly.

Very, very few of the coins out there have managed to 10X from their bear market levels. As a matter of fact, most of the cryptos are still somewhere near their bear market levels despite BTC being way over 5X from its 2022 low. We’ve got way more coins in circulation this cycle, and that’s probably why many are having difficulties appreciating like we were used to.

It’s amazing and painful at the same time seeing memes like fartcoin still outperforming others that are in a way better position when it comes to fundamentals. Very few in the crypto space know about Hive, for example—but almost all crypto peeps have heard about such a shitcoin.

Will we have an altcoin season this year?

Good question, cuz most of us are highly interested in altcoins rather than Bitcoin, but you know the deal—it’s Bitcoin’s show that comes first, and then altcoins follow. If I were to guess, I’d say that once BTC gets close to 70% dominance, we should start considering a proper altcoin season occurring.

Once that happens (if we’re still in a bull market), things are gonna get wild, and some of the shitcoins will probably get to their 2021 ATHs. Others will outperform. Nothing’s written on the wall though, but there’s still money to be made in this market. Have a look at what happened to OM (Mantra), and don’t get too greedy if your holdings get that wild.

Many are baffled by the fact that the bubble popped. The catalyst is irrelevant—the chart was looking overbought as fuck, and charts don’t lie. Other charts are so inviting though... Who knows, maybe two months from now we’ll all be sitting on 10X our current portfolio levels—or not...

You know the crypto market—it either goes up or down… Personally, I’m watching closely for 70% dominance on BTC and, why not, BTC getting to $200,000 this cycle. Anything is still on the table, but nothing is guaranteed. Thus, it makes a lot of sense to DCA out of the market when things go crazy, and DCA back in when there’s too much fear, doom, and gloom.

That’s about it from my side for now. I wish you all a great day and catch with you all next time.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian